VE5AA Saskatoon ARC Balloon Launch and recovered?

On Sunday while the eastern part of Canada was bracing for Kyles arrival the good people in Saskatoon Sask who are members of the Saskatoon ARC conducted what appears to have been their final successful flight of the year…

I mean successful because it looks like all 4 flights were recovered with payloads intact and any time you can launch a balloon and then get the toys back to play again I concider it a success. 

If you check the page for Sabre 4 which was their latest flight although it does not mention the successful recovery we seem to have APRS DATA almost to landing which would make it easier for the recovery teams to find things and also they are shoving a video of the burst which would imply the payload has been recovered…

I look forward to their final report on the flight which hopefully will be in their excellent newsletter which is also available on line…

Once again CONGRATS on a job well done…

73bob

Mondays look back at the weekend…

Well believe it or not I actually found the time to play a bit of radio in between updating the Blog on the antics of “Tropical Storm then Hurricane then back to Tropical Storm Kyle”…  By the time you read this it will mostly be “Tropical Depression Kyle” or even just “Kyle”…

 

Anyways the Kyle Report has been wrapped up and posted just before this posting…but for now…Back to Radio… 

 

I got the chance to play a bit of radio on the Saturday with some local 2m activity and then some evening 80m voice contacts.  I guess I should also mention the 4 hours of participation in the Ontario ARES Set Exercise.  Contacts were made across the Province on VHF and HF along with some good old fashioned AX25 packet style .ampr.org emails using the facilities of my home bbs ve2uqh.ampr.org.

 

Sundays radio was much less structured but also lots of fun… I started out on 80m joining my friends in the North Bay area by checking into the North Bay Net at 0900 on 3.768.  Paul VA3PC was the NCS.

 

This brought me up to 1000hrs where I checked into the Ottawa Valley Mobile Radio Club “Pothole Net” on 3.760.  Stations on the net included VE3WEH/m, VE3SBC/m, VE3GX, VE3LC, VE3EJJ, VE3BAE (Martintown Ontario).  The NCS was Patrick VA3CMD who was operating as VE3JW from the Science and Tech Museum Amateur Radio Exhibit. 

 

After the net I loaded up the pickup truck with my FT857 along with an 80m hamstick and a hombrewed mobile antenna that likes 40m and I hit the road.  Using the 40m antenna I was able to check into to the Sunday Morning Roundtable Net which started at 1100 hrs on 7.055 but I checked in with the NCS Nick VE3NJG at around 1130 or so.  Right after the Roundtable Net it was time for Nick to start the 40m version of the Ontario Swap Shop once again on 7.055 as both the Round Table Net and the Swap Shop use the Trans Provincal Net Frequency. 

 

After the Swap Shop ended at 1305 hrs the frequency was turned back to The Trans Provincal Net with Roy VE3FOD who is in Echo Bay Ontario as the NCS.  He called for checkins and I was able to get in on my first try… Not too shabby for a mobile with a home made antenna!!  After that contact I made my way home and had a QSO with Anthony VA3ATD on the local repeater VE3TWO…

 

Once home there were some family chores to take up the rest of my afternoon but in the early evening Liz and myself decided to head out for a coffee and a donut along with an evening walk through the park.  As the 857 was still in the truck I switched over to the 80m hamstick and checked into the Sandbox net on 3.733 with Norm VE3DHR who is located in Hawkesbury Ontario.  I also managed a short QSO with Dave VA3UI who lives in Martintown Ontario.  I normally talk to Dave when I’m up at the trailer as Martintown is just North East of my trailer site in Cornwall.

 

The evenings radio activites were now winding down and I found the Pioneer ARC 80m net down on 3.620.  The NCS was Doug VE3SPF who lives about 2km from my location so he was able to hear me.  Doug was using the Pioneer Club callsign of VE3NA and their group meets every Sunday Evening on this frequency…

 

The night was finished with an ECHOLINK contact along with a cuppa tea and a sandwich… Between the SET, monitoring various frequencies for info on Kyle and then my Sundays casual contacts it was a great weekend for amateur radio (as always)

 

73bob

TS Kyle->Hurricane Kyle->TS Kyle->TD Kyle–FINAL

Well Kyle in one form or another came for a visit and now is leaving us…  From the Canadian Media reports he is leaving with some minor damage/flooding but no loss of life or serious injuries…

Check out the CBC NEWS Website and the CTV NEWS Website for more information on this one…

Outside of some ECHOLINK traffic on the VOIP Hurricane Watch Net which is geared for passing storm WX reports and some storm damage reports there did not seem to be much emergency traffic or logistical traffic heard on the HF Bands…

After the storm had died down a bit I did jump over to a few VE1 ECHOLINK REPEATERS but did not hear anything I could attribute to the arrival of KYLE other than one amateur mentioning that his tower was still up…

73bob

Sunday 2000hrs EASTERN- Kyle comes to visit

He’s hereeeeeee…

I was under impression that landfall would be made late tonight or early Monday Morning but according to Stormpulse and confirmed by the first link….Kyle has come to visit…

So far I am not hearing any HF Traffic on the Maritime Net Frequency of 3.750 and nothing on the Hurricane Watch Net Frequency of 14.325  I did not really expect to hear anything on 20m but I do have good reception on 80m and well to be honest am not hearing anything that resembles Hurricane Traffic of any sort…

However there is some activity on ECHOLINK on their Nationial Hurricane/Skywarn Conference on the VOIP Hurricane Net but this is based in the US of A and as Kyle has made landfall as expected close to Yarmouth it will be securing soon.  Looks like Kyle was a CAT 1 when he made land but they are expecting to downgrade him back to Tropical Storm soon… 

My comments still stand from IKE when I said “that there is very little difference between a CAT 1 and a Tropical Storm especially if you are in the middle of it!”

Right now the NHC (National Hurricane Center in Miami) is getting some updates from VE1 Stations in the affected area…Final data before they shut things down as its confirmed that Kyle bypassed the USA and went directly into the Maritimes…

I am still monitoring ECHOLINK and 80m HF and will post if anything seems earth shattering or just plain interesting from an amateur radio point of view…

73bob

1400 hrs EASTERN- Hurricane Kyle Update

It looks like Kyle does not like Canadians as the most recent projections have him avoiding Maine but passing directly over Yarmouth Nova Scotia and Moncton New Brunswick.  Halifax Nova Scotia and St John New Brunswick are also in close proximity to Kyles path…

Background information can be found on the links below…

CNN

CANADIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION (CBC)

CTV NEWS

CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER (GOVERMENT OF CANADA)

ENVIRONMENT CANADA WEATHER RADAR (GOVERMENT OF CANADA)

STORMPULSE.COM

Now it goes without saying that if you are in the path of Kyle by now you should of taken all the precautions along with picking up emergency supplies RIGHT?????

More updates including those with a more Amateur Radio ARES style flavour will be coming later this evening.  So far not much has been heard on the airwaves regarding Kyle but the night is young yet…

73bob

Portable Ops- QRP vs QRO

We are coming into one of my favourite times of the year for Portable HF Operations.  In the fall season the leaves are starting to turn so the view is fantastic.  The bugs are in the process of leaving us so its nicer to sit and play radio.  The tempetures are a bit cooler so its more comfortable to sit for a while and most importantly the parks are not as crowded so we can stretch out wire easier as there are less people around to get tangled up in a dipole…  The fact also is that the trees have less leaves to snag my dipole is a good thing as well…

There are two main levels of operating for portable use and that is either QRP or QRO.  That would be concidered under 5w (QRP) or higher power (QRO). 

I can operate both modes as a portable station and in my opinion both levels have their own good points and bad points…

One of my favourite sayings is:

 “With 5W I need propagation and with 100W I make propagation”

For either setup the antenna should remain the same so here are some of the differences…

Radio: 5w vs 100w:  With 5w you need some decent band conditions to have lots of fun with your operating.  I have operated one DXPedition as a QRP Station  and as I had good band conditions it was a fantastic experience.  However I did operate from a Lighthouse as a QRP Station and only made 6 contacts in 2 hours which was not as much fun.  If the band is open 5w is plenty…  With 100w you have that extra punch that allows you to get your signal further in poor conditions (or good conditions)..  The main line I guess would be get your signal further…

Power:5w vs 100w:  This one is not about “Radio Power” but rather the battery power required to run your station in the field.  Batteries are required to power radios in the field.  I can operate all afternoon in a park with my Yaesu FT817 setup using a small 5ah SLA Battery.  The weight of the equipment is light enough the radio, battery and wire antenna all fit in a small sports style bag and therefore I can carry it from the car to the better operating locations which would be normally further away from the parking lot of the park.  These locations are usually further away from where the people using the park would be.  I can also operate from the park all afternoon using my Yaesu FT857 setup using the much larger 30ah SLA Battery Pack.  The advantages are obivious… More power means better and stronger signals… This means that more people should hear you and your signals should travel further… But now when I travel I carry a larger style carry bag for the Radio and Antenna and now I also have to carry a 25 lb battery pack…  Now I’m thinking that the picnic table close to the parking lot seems like a good idea… 

You get the idea….Now I really don’t want to operate from the parking lot area but I also don’t want (not in good enough shape) to hike 2 or 3 kms off the beaten path to play radio for a couple of hours or even an afternoon….

EMCOMMS (Emergency Communications):  This one is a “NO BRAINER”…  Higher power is needed to make the contact to pass the message…  This does not mean you can not use QRP for EMCOMMS it just means you need to have the best signal you can so its easier to make the contact with 100W and then scale back the power to a level that gets your message out clearly and also saves you a bit of power.  If all you have is 5w to play with its kind of hard to raise the power level…  But as always you do the best with what you have…

Packability:  We covered this a bit in power…But here is an example.  Earlier this may I was at Britannia Park with the Ottawa Valley QRP Society and we were all playing radio in the park.  Just as I was packing up my FT817 with the 7AH SLA two more bodies arrived to play.  Martin VA3SIE and Jerry VE3QSO both were operating the Elecraft KX1 QRP CW radios and they carried all their equipment in the pockets of their windbreakers including the batteries needed to power the radios.   

Even lighter…  The heavier the equipment…the less I walk… 

Just to get you thinking aboutt playing …

Remember: Radio CAN be an outdoor sport…!!!

73bob

Sunday Morning Hurricane Kyle Update

Here to start your day are the latest reports I can find concerning Kyle from the various media sources…

OTTAWA CITIZEN

CNN

CANADIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION (CBC)

CTV NEWS

CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER (GOVERMENT OF CANADA)

ENVIRONMENT CANADA WEATHER RADAR (GOVERMENT OF CANADA)

STORMPULSE.COM

AMATEUR RADIO FREQUENCIES AND OPERATIONS

The Hurricane Watch Net will be activce starting at Sunday evening at 1700 hrs EASTERN on their regular frequency of 14.325.  Secondary Frequencies would be 7.268 and 3.950

The Maritimes Section of ARES   (Radio Amateurs of Canada) will most likely be using their EXCELLENT linked 2m repeater system but you might hear them on also on 3.750 which is the frequency of the Maritime Net.

The Maine ARES   (American Radio Relay League)  will most likely be using once again 2m communications but you might hear some activity on their 40m frequency of 7.262 or their 80m frequency of 3.940

I will be updating the blog with my thoughts and comments later in the day…

73bob

 

 

Its now “HURRICANE KYLE”

Kyle has now grown up and is a CAT 1 HURRICANE!

From the US Nationial Hurricane Center:

WTNT21 KNHC 272032
TCMAT1
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
2100 UTC SAT SEP 27 2008

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT…2100 UTC…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE
SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH…INCLUDING THE PORTLAND
AREA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA…AND FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.

AT 5 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N  69.7W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT……. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT…….105NE  90SE   0SW  45NW.
34 KT…….180NE 140SE   0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N  69.7W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N  69.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.2N  69.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT…GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT… 60NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT…105NE  90SE   0SW  45NW.
34 KT…180NE 160SE  50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 41.3N  68.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT…GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT… 60NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT…105NE  90SE   0SW  45NW.
34 KT…180NE 160SE  50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 45.3N  66.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT…GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT…105NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT…200NE 180SE  50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 48.3N  65.3W…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT…GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT…125NE 175SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 51.5N  64.0W…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT…GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z…ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N  69.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WWWW

From the Canadian Hurricane Center:

WOCN31 CWHX 271800 CCA
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

… CORRECTED THE INITIAL POSITION AND DEPTH IN PART 1…
… KYLE NEARLY A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES WEST OF BERMUDA…

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT… TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.3 N AND LONGITUDE 69.7 W… ABOUT 250 NAUTICAL MILES OR 465 KM
WEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60
KNOTS… 111 KM/H… AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 998 MB. KYLE IS MOVING
NORTH NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS… 24 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 27  3.00 PM  33.3N  69.7W   998   60  111
SEP 27  9.00 PM  35.0N  69.4W   987   65  120
SEP 28  3.00 AM  36.9N  69.2W   986   70  130
SEP 28  9.00 AM  39.0N  68.7W   985   70  130
SEP 28  3.00 PM  41.0N  68.1W   988   65  120
SEP 28  9.00 PM  42.8N  67.5W   987   65  120
SEP 29  3.00 AM  44.8N  66.5W   990   60  111 TRANSITIONING
SEP 29  9.00 AM  46.3N  65.8W   997   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29  3.00 PM  48.0N  65.0W  1000   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29  9.00 PM  49.4N  63.8W  1002   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30  3.00 AM  50.6N  62.7W  1005   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30  9.00 AM  51.7N  61.6W  1007   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30  3.00 PM  52.6N  60.6W  1012   30   56 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

AT NOON SATURDAY THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE HAS
ISSUED TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR QUEENS COUNTY.. SHELBURNE
COUNTY.. YARMOUTH COUNTY.. DIGBY COUNTY IN NOVA SCOTIA..
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY.. GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE
COUNTY.. AND ST. STEPHEN AND NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN
NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR YARMOUTH
DIGBY SHELBURNE QUEENS AND LUNENBURG COUNTIES IN NOVA
SCOTIA AND WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SAINT JOHN
AND COUNTY.. GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY AND
ST. STEPHEN AND NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 120 KM/H CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE REGIONS
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TODAY.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF WHERE KYLE
EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL. EMO NEW BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC
THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN
RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN STREAMS AND RIVERS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT
TREE DAMAGE DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF KYLE EITHER SUNDAY
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. DURING SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST THESE
WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
DUE TO FALLEN TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OBJECTS
SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. THIS AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 50 MILLIMETRES AS POST TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING BY YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE
ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF FROM KYLE MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

AT 3 PM ADT THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE WILL BE
ISSUING HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN MARINE AREAS AND WILL BE ISSUING STORM WARNINGS
FOR THE BAY OF FUNDY AND SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA MARINE
AREAS.

GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISTRICT DURING SUBSEQUENT MARINE
FORECASTS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DECENT CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRE OF KYLE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 20 KNOTS
OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER KYLE AND THIS HAS
LIMITED THE INTENSIFICATION. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOULD BE SAMPLING THE STORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WE WILL
HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THE STORM STRUCTURE LATER TODAY.

KYLE PASSED VERY CLOSE TO BUOY 41048 BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT THE BUOY WERE 48 KNOTS AND THE HIGHEST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS 7.0 METRES. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WERE RECORDED ON BERMUDA ISLAND SOME 300 TO 400 NM
EAST OF THE STORM CENTRE.

B. PROGNOSTIC

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK BACK TO WEST BY 30-50 NM IN LINE
WITH THE NEW NHC GUIDANCE AND EARLY 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
ARE STILL A COUPLE OF MODELS THAT TRACK KYLE INTO NOVA SCOTIA
BUT THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS INSIST ON LANDFALL IN EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS FORECAST TRACK TAKES KYLE
AS A WEAKENING POST TROPICAL STORM THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE MONDAY EVENING.

THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DIFFICULTY IN WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY
BE KYLE’S DEMISE IN EASTERN QUÉBEC OR LABRADOR. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE STORM WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER
LABRADOR ON TUESDAY.. WHILE OTHER MODELS TAKE A WEAKENING
STORM INTO THE LABRADOR SEA AND MERGE IT WITH A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO REMAIN PERSISTENT AND
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE KYLE OVER LABRADOR ON TUESDAY.

WE FOLLOWED THE NHC GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. WE HAVE KEPT KYLE AS A 65 KNOT HURRICANE AS IT
TRAVERSES INTO THE BROWNS BANK MARINE AREA AND THAT IS JUST
ABOUT THE TIME THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN. THE TRANSITION SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAPID AND BY MONDAY
MORNING IT WILL BE POST TROPICAL IN CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK.

ON THE PROJECTED PATH KYLE WILL HAVE SPENT 12 OR MORE HOURS
OVER COLD WATERS AND SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ARRIVES ON THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

WITH OUR CHANGE IN TRACK AND INTENSITY THERE HAD TO BE SOME
ADJUSTMENT TO THE WARNINGS.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE STORM PATH
AND WITH THE FORWARD TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AMOUNTS COULD BE
UPWARDS TO 100 MM. THIS HEAVIEST RAIN COULD FALL IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS RAIN IS ON TOP OF ANY AMOUNTS THAT FALL TODAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL ZONE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

AS A RESULT OF KEEPING KYLE A HURRICANE UP TO THE POINT IT
REACHES BROWNS BANK.. AND THE FACT WE HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK
WEST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK.. WIND WARNINGS HAD TO BE
EXTENDED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF NEW BRUNSWICK ANYWHERE
NEAR AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF KYLE. WE WILL HAVE TO RAISE THE
WIND SPEED GUSTS TO 120 KM/H OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
TO MATCH THE HURRICANE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
BY WEST OF YARMOUTH AT 29/0300Z.

D. MARINE WEATHER

TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 8 METRES ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY NIGHT. ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING YARMOUTH AT ABOUT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR YARMOUTH AND DIGBY
COUNTIES AS KYLE PASSES JUST AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. IF THE
TRACK CHANGES THEN OTHER AREAS MAY BE OF CONCERN AS WELL.

IN NEW BRUINSWICK KYLE WILL ARRIVE AS THE TIDE IS EBBING
AND HENCE STORM SURGE SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE MINOR SHORELINE EROSION
DUE TO THE POUNDING SURF.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
27/18Z  180 140  20 110    90  30   0  45     0   0   0   0
28/00Z  180 140  20 110    90  30   0  45    15  15   0   0
28/06Z  180 160  50 110    90  60  10  45    30  30   0   0
28/12Z  180 160  50 110    90  60  10  45    30  30   0   0
28/18Z  200 170  50 120    90  75  20  50    30  30   0   0
29/00Z  200 180  50 120    90  75  20  50    30  30   0   0
29/06Z  220 200  60  60    90  90  20  40     0   0   0   0
29/12Z  200 200  60  60    25  25   0   0     0   0   0   0
29/18Z  170 195  30  50     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/00Z  125 160  10  45     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/06Z  120 150  30  40     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/12Z  120 150  60  40     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
30/18Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END NICKERSON/ROUSSEL

Also check the latest from Stormpulse

If you are in the Maritime Provinces or in the State of Maine this might be a good time to start making preparations if you have not already…

Please govern yourselves accordingly

Hopefully later tonight I should have those radio frequencies for you…\

73bob

ARES SET Exercise- Final

VA3QV SET REPORT

 

For this years (2008) SET EXERCISE I participated from my home QTH in Ottawa.

 

 My home is approximately 1 mile from the Ottawa Fire Department COMM Center which is the home to Ottawa ARES and approx 2.5 miles from the main EOC for the City of Ottawa.  Simplex communications on VHF and UHF are quite easy from my QTH to both locations.

 

The rigs and modes used for this exercise were as follows:

 

HF- YAESU FT 897/FC40 AUTO TUNER

VHF/UHF- YAESU FT 7800 FM RADIO

PACKET- YAESU FT 2400 USING AGWPE AND WINPACK

 

All three radios were powered from battery power using a deep cycle RV battery in the shack.

 

My participation started at 0850 when I checked in with Shawn VE3PSV via HF Voice on 3.742 and continued on until 1200 when I had to conclude operations.

 

I was primarly active using HF Voice and AX25/.ampr.org Packet Radio. I was using the VE2UQH.ampr.org BBS in Gatineau QC.  This AMPR.ORG BBS occupies the 2m frequency of 145.050.

 

In effect I was using AX25 Packet with RF Radio to get out of the effected area and sending the email from there.

 

I was able to send an email via packet to emoares at gmail.com and the email was acknowledged in less than one hour.  A second email was sent out to the Ontario SM.

 

I checked in with two HF controllers and continued to monitor the frequency with very poor (S9 noise level) conditions.  This noise level is normal for daytime 80m at my QTH.

 

I monitored IRLP Node 2210 VE3TST UHF in Ottawa as previously arranged but did not stay connected to the reflector 9005 as not to tie up a local repeater.

 

 No one from the SET connected with this node to pass traffic to me. 

 

For a short time I did connect to the 9005 reflector but was unable to contact the NCS as during that time the reflector would not un key (kerchunking or jamming) so I disconnected from the reflector and returned to monitoring HF.

 

Eastern Ontario stations in Pembroke and Pettawawa were heard on HF and Cornwall along with Kingston was noticed on IRLP so Eastern Ontario seemed to be covered with myself in Ottawa. 

 

No actual traffic was passed by this station on HF or IRLP and one message was passed and acknowledged on AX25 Packet

 

At 1200hrs EASTERN I closed down operations.

 

The turnout across the province seemed good…  From what I heard the operators seemed to have brushed up on their NTS traffic proceedures since the last exercise.  Remember the purpose of an exercise is to find your weakness and problem areas.  Hopefully to correct them with more training in the future.  Using various communication modes traffic was passed across the province and the State of Michigan as this year Michigan joined Ontario for this exercise.

 

73bob

Update on Tropical Storm Kyle Saturday 1500hrs Eastern

Well Tropical Storm Kyle is still heading North West and not that much has changed since my last post outside of the fact that the media is starting to take notice. 

POSTING ON CNN WEBSITE

CNN is mentioning a landfall in Maine and although all the projections we have seen so far is leaning a bit further east (Canadian Maritime Provinces) I’m sure that no one in Canada will object if CNN is correct.  If you check the “Stormpulse” site you will see their projections bringing it in just to the east of Eastport Maine so CNN Could be right.

LINK TO STORMPULSE WEBSITE

The Canadian Media is starting to take things a bit more serious with CTV News updating their coverage of Kyle fairly frequent.  More detail in the stories…

LINK TO CTV NEWS WEBSITE FOR KYLE

The Weather Network has started giving more airtime to Kyle and now have given us a website with information.  Some announcers are reminding that this is the 5th anniversary of Hurricane Juan which was a CAT 2 that hit the Province of Nova Scotia and caused 8 deaths and millions of dollars in damages.

LINK TO THE WEATHER NETWORKS COVERAGE OF KYLE

BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON HURRICANE JUAN

Landfall is still predicted for late Sunday night or early Monday Morning in Maine or New Brunswick.  One thing for sure is that the Maritimes and Maine are going to get very wet before Kyle hits land.  There are still conflicting ideas on if he will be a Hurricane CAT 1 or a Tropical Storm when he arrives…  But remember what I said earlier…  There is little difference between a hurricane and a tropical storm as you watch your roof blow off your house or you watch your garage float away in the flooding….

One report I caught on the news was that the Canadian Red Cross has started activating their people for this one.  There is a MOU between the Canadian Red Cross and the Canadian ARES (Radio Amateurs of Canada) for ARES/RAC to assist with communications so I am expecting to be hearing some Communication Activations in the near future…

More updates later tonight….

73bob