If your in the Maritimes you might want to be looking at this…
Map courtesy of http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html
click the link for updated track
WOCN31 CWHX 150141
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 10:41 PM ADT SUNDAY
14 OCTOBER 2012.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= NEWFOUNDLAND.
FOR TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM ADT.
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD EASTERN ATLANTIC
CANADA.
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==DISCUSSION==
WE ARE MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY PASSING NEAR BERMUDA.
BEYOND TUESDAY THE TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE SPEED AND STRUCTURE OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. COMPUTER MODEL SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT EXPRESS A RANGE OF TRACKS FROM JUST EAST OF CAPE BRETON TO WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE IS FOR A TRACK CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA. A TRACK ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THAT RANGE WOULD REPRESENT AN EARLIER ARRIVAL (EARLY WEDNESDAY) WHILE A FARTHER-EAST
TRACKING WITH THE STORM WELL OFFSHORE WOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT THE MARINE DISTRICT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS OF TRACK, RAFAEL WILL MOST LIKELY BE UNDERGOING TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM WITH HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT MERGES WITH THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE SPECIFIC AREAS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED. ADDITIONALLY, PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME WIND WILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE EVOLUTION OF RAFAEL.
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL LIKELY BEGIN OFFICIAL 6-HOURLY BULLETINS MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE DETAILS.
VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.
END/..
Tags: amateur radio, Canadian Hurricane Center, Severe Weather, TS RAFAEL
