Courtesy the Canadian Hurricane Center
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WOCN31 CWHX 271745
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 2:57 PM ADT Saturday 27 October 2012
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Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
New Brunswick
Southern Quebec
Southern Ontario.
For hurricane Sandy.
The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.
Hurricane Sandy will be reaching the East Coast of the United States on Monday. While the most severe conditions will affect Northeastern United States, wide-ranging and signigicant impacts are expected across parts of Eastern Canada.
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==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT.
Location: 29.5north 75.7west about 440 kilometres northeast of
Freeport Bahamas.
Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/h.
Present movement: north-northeast 15 km/h
Minimum central pressure: 958 MB
2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
Hurricane Sandy is currently north of the Bahamas and is moving north-northeastward. Although Sandy briefly weakened to a
Tropical storm earlier today maximum sustained winds associated with it have increased to 120 km/h bringing Sandy back to hurricane status. During the weekend Sandy is forecast to continue to track north or northeastward while remaining at hurricane strength. Sandy will gradually lose some of its tropical characteristics and on Monday it is expected to take an uncharacteristic turn to the northwest and begin interacting with an approaching trough from the west.
Current indications from various weather models are that Sandy could strengthen before moving inland on the United States East Coast in the vicinity of Delaware late Monday as a very large and powerful storm. It is important to remember that impacts will cover a large area well away from the center. There are various factors Influencing the evolution of the storm and as a result there is Still some degree of uncertainty with respect to the magnitude of The impacts from the storm. For this reason people living in these areas are urged to pay close attention to messages from the Canadian Hurricane Centre and local weather forecasts and possible future warnings throughout the weekend.
A. Rainfall.
Based on the current forecast scenario, Southern and Eastern Ontario and Western Quebec are likely to see the most rainfall from this system with total amounts by Tuesday evening possibly reaching the 50 to 100 millimetre range which would be typical for post-tropical weather systems. However since post-tropical Sandy will be interacting with a stalled front over Ontario, localised heavier rainfall amounts of over 100 mm are possible over areas adjacent To Lake Ontario northward to Algonquin Park.
Heavy rain could also affect other parts of Quebec with amounts of 20 mm likely. At this time, the probability of rainfall amounts
exceeding 25 mm for these areas is around 40%. Heavier rain is expected over the Maritimes and amounts in this area could exceed 50 mm.
The precipitation could mix with or turn into snow over parts of South-Central Ontario and extreme Western Quebec as temperatures approach the freezing mark north and west of the storm. A significant snowfall event could occur over Central Ontario.
B. Winds.
Most areas of Southern Ontario will be subject to very windy conditions with possible severe gusts in excess of 100 km/h
especially along Western Lake Ontario and the Niagara Escarpment. These gusts could cause broken tree limbs or in some cases uprooted trees which may result in downed utility lines. Residual falling leaves can also obstruct storm water drainage systems along roadways particularly in urban areas. This combined with heavy rainfall could increase the risk of flooding in some areas.
Very strong northeast winds will also affect eastern and Western Quebec. There is a good probability of wind gusts exceeding 90
Km/h. Gusty winds can also be expected in the Maritimes especially Monday night.
C. Waves.
There will be a risk for large waves along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia especially along the south shore as wave activity begins
to increase Monday into Tuesday. These large waves could produce pounding surf conditions.
3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
Gale force winds are expected to spread to Canadian waters well in advance of Sandy reaching the United States coastline. Gales are expected on Monday over the Great Lakes, the St Lawrence seaway and western Maritimes marine waters. There is a possibility of storm force winds over southwestern marine areas of the Maritimes and on the Great Lakes.
Also, higher than normal water levels are expected on the st Lawrence River during high tide Monday evening and especially
Tuesday evening. This could result in coastal flooding in the Quebec City region.
Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:
- forecast position, central pressure table.
- strength and predicted wind radii table.
- hurricane track information map.
- technical discussion.
Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.
End
FXCN31 CWHX 271800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.55 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 OCTOBER 2012.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT, HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 N AND LONGITUDE 75.7 W, ABOUT 238 NAUTICAL MILES OR 440 KM NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS (120 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 958 MB. SANDY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS (15 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 27 3.00 PM 29.5N 75.7W 958 65 120
OCT 28 3.00 AM 31.3N 74.2W 955 65 120
OCT 28 3.00 PM 33.2N 72.8W 950 65 120
OCT 29 3.00 AM 35.3N 72.0W 950 70 130
OCT 29 3.00 PM 37.2N 73.2W 955 65 120
OCT 30 3.00 AM 38.9N 75.8W 960 60 111
OCT 30 3.00 PM 40.0N 77.1W 968 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 31 3.00 AM 40.5N 77.4W 975 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 31 3.00 PM 41.5N 77.3W 980 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 3.00 AM 43.0N 77.0W 985 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES TO HAVE INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTRE. BUOY B41010 ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTRE CONTINUES TO MEASURE NORTHERLY GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN THIS DEEP CONVECTION. SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA
INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF 55 KNOT WINDS IN THIS CONVECTION TO THE WEST AS WELL. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WELL WITHIN THE CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SANDY’S CENTRE.
SANDY TOOK A WOBBLE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING BUT THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 030 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT SANDY HAD REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN ADDITION THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO GET LARGER AS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND BUOY B41010.
B. PROGNOSTIC
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SANDY TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND CAUSE SANDY TO TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE US EAST COAST. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL MONDAY. PHASE SPACE PROGNOSIS INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH SANDY WILL BE RECEIVING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST, THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN A WARM CORE UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GO INLAND AS A LARGE POWERFUL CYCLONE WHILE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL.
ON TUESDAY, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL BECOME CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND IN THE UNITED STATES. POST-TROPICAL SANDY IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL BE GREATLY WEAKENED AND WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE BIGGEST IMPACTS IN CANADA FROM SANDY WILL OCCUR WELL BEFORE THE CENTRE MOVES INTO CANADA. IN FACT THE STORM WILL LIKELY BE GREATLY WEAKENED BEFORE ENTERING CANADA.
VERY STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS POST-TROPICAL SANDY APPROACHES. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST SOME SNOW IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY AS A BAND OF RAIN MOVES NORTHWARD WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF SANDY’S CENTRE.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
27/18Z 390 225 205 280 40 55 135 130 0 0 90 30
28/06Z 375 285 270 280 65 110 150 150 0 0 90 90
28/18Z 360 315 300 300 85 135 160 160 0 30 90 90
29/06Z 360 345 315 330 110 155 175 170 0 30 90 90
29/18Z 360 360 280 250 140 170 130 130 0 30 50 50
30/06Z 360 360 175 100 180 190 50 50 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 360 360 120 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/06Z 360 360 120 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/18Z 200 200 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/06Z 50 50 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/COUTURIER/HATT
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More Info can be found on the following links…
Storm Graphics can be found at : http://www.stormpulse.com/2012-hurricane-season
NOAA Weather statements can be found at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
At this time the Hurricane Watch Net is active on 14.325 usb. (depending on band conditons)
And this blog post makes for good reading before things hit :
http://dixson.org/2009/01/off-the-grid-eighty-hours-without-commercial-power/
Stay safe out there…
73bob
Tags: Canadian Hurricane Center, Severe Weather, Weather Warnings
